Your hand in mine
The quill moved swiftly back and forth, in sure movements that implied more confidence than Naomi was feeling right then.
She paused to dip the point of the quill in the pot letting out a heavy sigh as she did so. It was a rather long report, and somewhat unusual. She couldn't help feeling she should have more to say. That if she could just have found a way to force the orcs to talk to her she would have found a way to open this runebox.
The quill returned to its meticulous work. The gentle scratching of the nib, the only sound in the scriptorium. All the other civil servants had gone to bed. That was an appealing thought, but she couldn't let this lie. She couldn't live with herself if this went wrong and there was something she could have done, something she could have said, that would have helped. It was too important.
She sighed again, looking down at the report. It was done. Truth be told it was done an hour ago. She looked at it and contemplated how to finish it. It needed something to finish on. She knew what she wanted to put - but it really wasn't appropriate for a civil servant. But surely... as one diplomat to another...
She sighed again. It didn't matter what she put, Gerard would take that bit out anyway. Propriety had to be observed, he always said. Freed of the need to meet those high standards herself, she put the quill to the paper one last time.
"Good luck" she scratched into the vellum. You're gonna need it she thought to herself.
Overview
At the Winter Solstice, the Senate approved the motion raised by the Conscience of the Senate to instruct Naomi of Virtue's Rest to find a solution to appraise solutions to the rebels of Nesustak Forest, Sarangrave. It's easy to see why Naomi was chosen, she is liked and admired for her natural charm and an engaging personality. A natural born diplomat, she is skilled at finding diplomatic solutions to problems. None-the-less all her attempts to make contact with the rebels have failed.
However, there is a single chance to make contact. There will be a conjunction of the Sentinel Gate at 14:00 on Sunday for a small group of five Imperial Citizens to meet with the rebels and discuss their situation. The Empire will need to decide who is selected and will need to ensure that they are briefed and have realistic expectations. Naomi has done what she can to assist with this.
It is clear that now is not the time for any kind of treaty. The best that the Empire can possibly hope for from this meeting is that the rebels might be persuaded to hold further talks. If enough inroads can be made in the meeting, if the Empire can convince these people they are liberators rather than conquerors then there is a chance. They have saved the septs from certain death at the hands of the Druj and recently, if they convince them that they will save them from an enemy that they truly do not need to, then that may be enough to convince the rebels that the Empire is not the monster the Druj told them they were.
This meeting will be pivotal in the fate of these rebels, and will define whether the Druj gain more propaganda against the Empire for the Septs who remain in Ulnak and Sanath, or whether that narrative can be turned. Fortunately for the Empire, unfortunately for the rebels, they are not in a position to be able to turn away from the Empire completely, as much as they may like to. Papa Otec has warned them that should action not be taken, they will be overrun by Vallorn that Warren Wise cannot protect them from by itself. This, more then anything else, is likely to be what has pushed the rebels to agree to this first negotiation.
We send Naomi of Virtue's Rest to appraise solutions to the rebels of Nesustak Forest, Sarangrave
Conscience of the Senate, Senate MotionThe Nature of the Problem
The appraisal is challenging for several reasons, the first of which is that the Senate haven't identified an actual problem they want solved. It's very clear that they want Naomi to solve the problem - that bit is obvious - but it's less clear what the Conscience believes the problem is. Of course Naomi can guess what the problem is... that the Empire have what the rebels want, namely control of Sarangrave. That means someone is going to have to compromise. Someone cannot have the thing they want. That is certainly a problem.
But it could be that conscience sees the problem very differently to the prognosticator. They might want Naomi to find ways to get rid of rebels. Or a way to bring them into the Empire? Or a way to buy them off? None of these seem likely, there are better prognosticators than Naomi if that is what the Senate wanted, but "doubt is the death of Virtue" as they say. Still, the cold-hearted answer that her job compelled her to offer is that the simplest 'solution' to the rebels is, to allow the Vallorn to wash over them. She is hopeful that is not the solution anyone wants, but it definitely will work. All the Empire has to do to "solve" the rebel problem is nothing. Do absolutely nothing - and the vallorn will completely resolve the problem - there will be no more rebels in the Sarangrave.
Naomi hates that idea; "There is no virtue in inaction" she says. More likely the lifelong diplomat simply hates the idea of letting this conflict end in such a way.
The much bigger problem is that none of the rebels are willing to talk to the Empire. It's a little under three years since the Empire first appraised the situation in the Sarangrave - identifying the three main septs that lived under Druj rule. That appraisal returned a menu of options that would provide ways to improve the resources and morale of the Sarangrave septs, but sadly they all proved too expensive. The Empire did not arm the septs, the Winter Sun didn't try to start an uprising, no treaties were signed. Of course this is often the way of things, the Empire is faced with so many challenges. And it's not clear that getting the septs to rise up was anything but a terrible idea. The Druj have crushed rebellions before now.
Still, it is a simple fact that starting your diplomacy at the point where you are in a position that you can offer aid and support strengthens your hand considerably. If the Empire had armed the septs and fought alongside them against the Druj, this would be a much easier prospect. Trying to open diplomatic channels with the septs after they seized their own weapons and thrown off the shackle of the the Druj is challenging. Sadly, events since that appraisal have not helped the Empire's cause. The events in the Barrens, the attack on the Rahvin, the executions of the Black Wind, the destruction of the Montanians - cumulatively they have had a devastating impact on the Empire's reputation with all the septs of the Mallum.
There is a ray of light however, the Gryphon's Pride are infamous for the role the army played in the saga of the Barrens. This season gone they threw up a wall of steel around the rebels, placing themselves between the innocent and the murderous. Dawnish heroes died to save the lives of the Nesustak rebels. If they hadn't done that, then it is quite possible that the Druj would also have solved the Empire's "problem" for them - by wiping the rebels out. The noble sacrifice of the army, putting aside their desire to defeat the Druj may have sapped the Military Council strength and kept the problem of the rebels alive, but it did so by planting a single seed that could yet flower into something bigger.
Without the actions of the Gryphons Pride this entire approach would have been hopeless. Now it is just hopelessly difficult.
The Scale of the Problem
- Naomi has ruled every easy answer out - there is no commission, motion, declaration, judgement, or similar that will advance diplomatic engagement with the rebels
- There is only one possible option at this stage - someone will have to talk to the rebels
- Naomi has focussed her appraisal on who would be best placed to help
Naomi has a tried and tested approach to carrying out an appraisal. She devotes the first half of the season to talking to the key groups involved, finding out what it is they want, what their needs are, what their hopes are. The rest of the season is spent exploring ways that those wants and needs could be met by the Empire. That usually results in a plethora of options to use the wealth, power and might of the Empire to address the problem. Such solutions are rarely cheap, but where they can be found they are guaranteed to work.
That approach has failed her here. Naomi did her best to entreat directly with the rebels of Nesustak forest, but the rebels simply do not trust the Empire as a whole, especially the Imperial Senate. It's impossible to find out what might mollify the rebel septs when they refuse to talk to you. Somewhat reluctantly, Naomi has been forced to rule out all the practical steps at this stage. If the Empire can start a dialogue with the septs then the situation could change, but until that happens, there is no commission, no motion, no declaration or judgement that is guaranteed to improve this situation.
There is only one possible solution - someone will have to find a way to convince the rebels to talk to the Empire. Naomi is quick to point out that she has already tried - indeed she assumes that this is what the Senate actually wanted her to do - but she has failed. She made three different approaches to the rebels, one to each of the three septs. On each occasion she was driven off at bow-point.
Her usual methods thwarted, Naomi has concentrated on what she can do. She has identified a small conjunction of the Sentinel Gate, that leads to the edge of the Bloodwater Marsh, not far from the rebels main camp. Taking that as a clear sign that fate is showing the way, she has focussed on doing what she can to prepare for this conjunction, to try to ensure it has the best possible chance of success.
The Shape of the Problem
- Naomi has seven recommendations for the envoys
Using what she little she knows of the rebels, and her many years of experience with negotiation, Naomi has done her best to prepare some guidance for whoever is chosen to travel through the Sentinel Gate.
Ambition - one tree at a time
The septs hate the Empire. They hate the Druj too - but that is not a reason to love the Empire. The Empire has unleashed powerful, indiscriminate curses across the Mallum, they have slaughtered allies of these septs, turned away those who surrendered to them. It is appealing to imagine that someone is going to be the next Emperor Ahraz, pass through the Sentinel Gate, and come back with a treaty in hand. Naomi counsels that anyone who wants to copy Ahraz would do well to study the Orc Rebellion to learn how long Emperor Ahraz actually took to bring the rebels on side. The best the envoys could possibly hope to achieve is an agreement to hold further talks - if they aim for that - and pull that off - that will be an incredible achievement.
Courage - face unwelcome truths
The septs fear the Empire. The septs fear the Druj. The septs fear the vallorn. Currently all three of those threats are massed on their borders and any one of them could annihilate them. The Empire must decide if they want to negotiate from a position of strength and try to use intimidation to force the rebels to accept their terms, or take the opposite approach and looks for ways to allay their fears. Switching between diplomatic and military solutions, as the Empire did in the Barrens is absolutely guaranteed to lead to disaster. The Empire must pick a horse and back it. They must decide how they will deal with the fear the septs feel.
Loyalty - by the unity of both
The septs do not trust the Empire and with good reason. The Empire is reaping a bitter harvest of years of difficult interactions with the various groups that have rebelled against the Druj. Naomi cautions that what is needed now, more than anything, is trust. And the best way to build trust is to match words to actions. The envoys should say and promise nothing that they cannot be confident they can make happen, and they should do nothing with the septs that has not been discussed and agreed with them. The Empire must marry their words to their actions to have a chance to restore trust.
Pride - never be ashamed
The envoys can expect to be grilled on the events in the Barrens. In fact, it is a sign that the meeting is going well if they are asked to provide an accounting for themselves. It shows that the septs are open to discussing the matter. The Empire will have to think carefully about what they claim happened and why. The septs will not care that those decisions were taken by other citizens - that will not persuade them that the outcome will be different this time. Deceit is possible, but dangerous. The envoys should assume that the septs know about the conflict in the Barrens - they have the support of the Prince with a Thousand Foes after all. If the envoys look like they are trying to play those events down, the septs are likely to assume that the Empire is trying to lure them into a trap. It is an difficult needle to thread, but the envoys will need to find a way to account for past events that satisfies the septs.
Prosperity - all that is worthwhile
Naomi knows what the septs want - they want the Sarangrave. Assuming the Empire isn't going to give them what they want, the next question is what do they need? Naomi has no idea what the septs need, and she warns the envoys that they are unlikely to just blurt it out. Their needs are their weaknesses, they will be fearful to expose them to the Empire. If the envoys just come out and ask what the septs want, they are unlikely to get the right answer. She recommends careful observation and study of any rebels the envoys meet. If they can ferret out what the septs need, then that creates an opportunity to share what is deserved.
Vigilance - that which threatens what you watch over
In Naomi's view, the only reason that there is any meeting happening at all is because of the actions of the general of the Gryphons Pride. The rebels have not rebelled against the Empire, yet. They have rebelled against the Druj. The Druj are the ones the rebels fear. Look at the example of the Karass - who despite everything they have experienced, still believe that the Druj will return. The one problem that Naomi can virtually guarantee that the rebels have is a paralysing fear of the Druj.
Wisdom - find the right question
There are two primary septs in the Sarangrave that have taken up arms and claimed the territory for themselves; the Bloodwater Spears and the Water Walkers. While other orcs have joined them as the Empire has driven out the Druj it is these two who have the loudest voices and the most influence over the rebels. She strongly recommends that everyone involved learn what they can of these septs. Even thought that information is some four years out of date, it is better than nothing. The better they understand the people they are meeting, the better the meeting will go.
The Empire's most experienced diplomat finishes by warning that there diplomacy is a lot like war - it's always difficult, it's always uncertain, and if you get it badly wrong... everyone dies.
The Solution to the Problem
- The conjunction is at 14:00 on Sunday for five people to go to the armed camp
- This is a combat possible encounter
- Naomi recommends that the diplomats travel unarmed
- The Senate will need to decide who will go but Naomi has recommendations
The conjunction to the rebels camp is at 14:00 for five people. It leads to the camp of the rebels - who will be armed and feeling threatened. Naomi recommends that the envoys take no weapons with them. She stresses that if violence breaks out, five people with weapons will not last ten seconds against a dozen orcs armed with bows. The only possible way the envoys are coming back alive is if a fight does not start. The less threatening the envoys look the better.
The civil service take a lot of liberties when choosing who will take responsibility for a Sentinel Gate conjunction - while that approach has flaws, it is the only practical way to ensure someone is in charge. The civil service cannot possibly take responsibility for this expedition, there is simply far too much riding on it.
The Imperial Constitution is utterly clear that relations with foreign groups is the responsibility of the Imperial Senate, so it falls to the Senate to chose who will go. They could either hand-pick all five envoys, or pick one envoy and put them in charge of choosing the other delegates or some combination of the two. A single Senate motion can be used to provide legal clarity, listing the names of who should go and who should take the lead.
Still, Naomi has some more recommendations.
Ser Guy of the Twisted Rose
The actions of the Gryphons Pride saved the lives of hundreds or more of the rebels in recent weeks. The rebels watched the Dawnish stand between them and the Druj. They cannot possibly have failed to notice what happened. There is no Imperial citizen who would start from a stronger position than the Ser Guy. The position is up for election so the army may have a different general by Sunday - but Naomi stresses that it is Ser Guy they will acknowledge, not the current general.
Fausta Ankarien
The Grandmaster of the Silver Chalice raised a declaration of Concord urging Imperial magicians to work with the slaves of the Mallum to free themselves. To date nothing has come of this declaration - the rebels are gripped by distrust and fear and there have been precious few chances to work with them. But the rebels will definitely know that that declaration was passed and they will know who passed it, because Papa Otec asked the Conclave to act. He is the rebels most dedicated eternal ally. After Ser Guy, Fausta Ankarien is a name that the rebels will know and recognise.
Aspar
The ex Conscience of the Senate was the one who raised the motion to instruct Naomi to explore this avenue. The rebels are not likely to know that, but they might. Crucially Aspar is the one who can honestly say that they have initiated this outreach - they can faithfully claim to represent the Empire's diplomatic face, and there is a subtle but undeniable power in Truth. That might count for something with the rebels.
The Senate are, of course, free to ignore all of Naomi's recommendations. She cheerfully acknowledges that there may be other citizens able to make a stronger case that she is simply unaware of. It is the job of the prognosticator to give the Senate all the information they can, the terrible duty of deciding what should be done is the burden of others.
None-the-less, Naomi strongly recommends that the Throne do not undertake this perilously dangerous expedition. While it might seem appealing to send the highest authority in the Empire to treat with the rebels, there is at best a fifty/fifty chance that the rebels don't simply take Emperor Vesna hostage and try to threaten the Empire accordingly. Naomi doesn't imagine anyone thought it would be appropriate to ask the Throne to deal with this personally - but feel they would be remiss if they did not point out just how badly wrong this could go.
The Timing of the Problem
- If nothing else happens, the vallorn will obliterate the Nesustak rebels in the next three months
- The envoys need to know what the Empire is doing and what the implications will be for the rebels
As things stand currently, the rebels are going to be completely wiped out by the vallorn that the Druj have unleashed in Sarangrave. The rebels will have no idea what options the Empire has for dealing with that - they don't have any way to get that information. But they will definitely know that the vallorn is coming for them - Shackle Smasher will have told them.
The Prince with a Thousand Foes will encourage the rebels to flee from the vallorn, since they cannot possibly counter that threat themselves, but currently they have nowhere to go. The Empire is not obliged to save the rebels from the revenge of the Druj, but Naomi advises that the envoys will be in the strongest possible position to negotiate with the rebels if the Military Council ensures that they know exactly what the Empire is planning to do and what they are allowed to tell the rebels the Empire is planning to do.